Exclusive report - the peak of dialogue: the solar photovoltaic industry market scale will exceed 10 000 GW
Century new energy the network PVMate (reporter Zhang Song, Sun Wenyan) live coverage, 13-14 April 2012, the solar photovoltaic industry leader sixth of China New Energy International Forum Forum North
Live coverage of the century and the new energy Network & PVMate of (reporter Zhang Song, Sun Wenyan), 13-14 April 2012, the splendid performance of Sixth China New Energy International Forum of the solar photovoltaic industry leaders forum in Beijing, China National Convention Center, forum presided over by the New Energy Chamber of Commerce, the Secretary-General of the Trans Union Dr. Zeng Shaojun Michael the Wilshire, Mr. Zhang Zhengyu Li River Jun, Peng Fang, Liu Hanyuan, kevin Berkemeyer photovoltaic industry insiders to discuss cutting-edge trends and forecast of the PV industry. The following is the century of new energy networks & PVMate site Record.
Dr. Zeng Shaojun: Please Mr. Li Hejun express some point, because Mr. Li Hejun in the new energy industry, which is a legendary figure. As we all know, in 2003, he won the tender of a wind power project, breaking the wind power is the myth of high energy prices. In 2008, 2009, 2010, we are optimistic about the technology of crystalline silicon cells, and a bunch of thin-film battery technology bigwigs slowly out of the market, including the withdrawal of the application materials, including the Learning Alliance Kang can be said that the dead than alive, contrarian, and determined to engage in a thin film battery, look at the time of his presentation at the summit before they engage in the eight bases, if completed, can reach 300 GW, almost the first about twice the solar energy. We listen to the opinions of Mr. Li Hejun.
Jun Li River, a member of the CPPCC National Committee, China New Energy Chamber of Commerce Han Holdings, Chairman of the Board (Photography century new energy network Sunnie)
Jun Li River: Thank you, first of all I talk about market segments, said the big market first, and then say the film, a two-part talk.
This round of European debt crisis, including the United States contrary, actually our Chinese speaking is a good thing. U.S. and European markets to die does not mean to die of the global market, Chinese market is just beginning. But I think the PV market in the future should focus on in the country, this is my judgment. Now I shall tell you the two sets of data, the future market in China in 2020 before the 1000 GW I think it will be achieved, the theory could reach 3,000 GW. Why I tell you here a lot of electricity experts, because my generation, I am particularly aware of the power generation, the Han is the largest private power generation companies in China, I had line of work to do this is unique for the power generation business understanding is very important. But China's total installed capacity in 2020 to 2 billion kilowatts, and now could say, solar energy, including crystalline silicon thin film instead of 30% is not impossible, is a great possibility. First of all we know, we electricity, 70% of industrial electricity, the roof of the industrial plant, we have studied very, Hina 26 research report concluded that the plant roof can replace 30% to 40% of industrial electricity . Even if 30% 20, Panax this period took 20 percent of the supply of the whole society to substitute out for China. We all know that the ground station, Theoretically, the ground station can accommodate up to 20% there with residents accounted for 12%, as well as other third industrial electricity, taken together, in fact, theory can reach 40% to 50%. Do not say so much off and call it, call a discount, to resolve 15%, which is what the concept of 15% of the 300 million installed, 1000 GW of solar energy is one billion installed in the case of energy storage have not been resolved , but the average solar conventional energy sources quarter, but also divided by four, the 200 million installed capacity of more than a little bit less than 250 million installed. This is what can not it should be. This number can be calculated, 1,000 gigawatt is one billion installed, equivalent to a quarter of the conventional power generation, which means that 200 million of capacity, 200 million capacity among countries to 2020 was 2 billion installed is 10%, at least have this. This is a.
Secondly, I want to say is the advantage of China's solar power, clean energy, Asian experts have just talked about, mainly rely on subsidy, subsidies, not subsidies, to achieve parity, this is very clear. We always talk about the unique advantages of the Chinese government, concentrating power, the subsidy policy of country-driven industrial policy should be stronger than any country in Europe, China understand the speed, definitely more than all of us to imagine, you Do you believe not believe it. So I think the future market must be in China, Han can play with all of you enterprise play is completely different, Hina play is based on the domestic market, less than the international market play. Hina capacity now that we no suspense this end of the year, production capacity of 3 GW, all film. But asked why I would do the film, I think the film has many advantages, that day, General Zhang also mentioned, do not know how the certainty of the film. But I tell you, my partner is here. First to tell you, we feel that this round of crystalline silicon decreased by 70% of the price, to everyone scared. Scared a lot of large enterprises, scared a lot of small and medium enterprises, which is clearly indicating that many companies died. The reason is very simple, those small and medium enterprises to follow suit with too much, there is no systematic planning, systems thinking, a money followed, there is no money to die. So I think the industry adjustment in terms of China is a great opportunity, not a bad thing, is a good thing.
The relationship between the film and the polysilicon, I would like to talk about point of view, most of the buddies are doing the crystalline silicon, so I want to say a few points. Me quite a long time, the next five to ten years, crystalline silicon film certainly will coexist, because the market is so big, you completely open-horsepower dry also so much to so many, so there is no pure competition, this is my The overall judgment, the market is so big. We Han do the film, in fact, based on two points. First, large-scale, economies of scale, the system scale. Now we know, the film size and competitiveness of polysilicon is 12:17. What does this data mean, when the film 12 conversion rate, the competitiveness of the polysilicon 17 and 18 conversion rate is the same, you may know, is the same price. But the problem is that when the Han can do 12 conversion rate, the cost may be about 0.4 yuan, but 12 of any film is not a very difficult thing, very simple things. We have just started to do what difficulty, 90,12 is not difficult. Polysilicon to be dried to less than 0.4 yuan easier said than done. So I say to a point, when the price of 12, film 12, polysilicon 18, the two competitive is the same. Many reasons, including crystalline silicon hours of power generation, power generation under the sun, including land, angle, etc., we have a consensus, because your battery 17 conversion rate, the actual component only 14 and 15 of the conversion rate. The film in this industry want me to look at is very uncertain, but the outlook is very large, that's for sure. Crystalline silicon is very determined, but the prospect of relatively thin film, I think it would be almost. This is my judgment, not necessarily because I do yell, not necessarily.
So I think that the future development of the film should be said that market share is growing, a data has made it clear three years ago, films account for only 5% of the market, now account for 25 percent of the market. Has confirmed this view, just because the film needs the money too much, too much money, the threshold is too high, many people could not do, it is also true. So I want to talk about film for a long time the coexistence of crystalline silicon, but I am very optimistic about the film, I believe the price of the film be 0.3 yuan, 0.2 yuan, we believe it? Thank you!